
其他重要因素,如荒地-城市交界的人口增长以及国家管理不足或不适当, federal 和 privately owned forests exacerbate the increasing risk.
随着形势的恶化, insurance premiums will tend to rise to a point w在这里 they might no longer be affordable. In some regions, coverage might be pulled altogether. 这将扩大未投保巨灾损失的“保护缺口”,瑞士再保险公司目前估计这一缺口为1美元.2 trillion (approximately 75% of total economic losses).
Some businesses are being especially affected. 滑雪胜地和酿酒厂, 例如, are often surrounded by trees 和 crops, 和 are particularly vulnerable to direct 和 indirect impacts of wildfire.
Although t在这里 is no simple solution, 参数风险转移形式的创新正在帮助公共和私营部门找到新的选择,以补充其传统的赔偿覆盖范围,以应对不断变化的气候.
Why Parametric Risk Transfer Is a Good Option for Wildfire Coverage
参数网上买足彩的正规app依赖于对事件强度和位置的测量,以确定支付. 可以设计策略, 例如, so that it pays a pre-agreed amount depending on the wildfire footprint reaching certain areas.
然而,热带气旋的破坏可能会有很大的变化,从轻微到完全取决于无数的因素, damage from wildfire tends to be binary: If the fire footprint reaches a particular asset, the asset will likely be completely lost. 因此, 野火本身很适合参数化处理,因为危险地点在很大程度上决定了损失的结果.
由于卫星数量的增加和仪器的改进,提供这类信息的遥感方法在过去几十年中取得了重大进展. With these capabilities within reach, (再)保险公司正在开发依赖于通常是公开的度量的参数化合同, free 和 made available in near-real time, such as those provided by NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System.
通常, direct damages are less concerning than financial damages incurred by the interruption of operations. Mountain resorts 和 hotels are a case in point. 这些企业可以使用参数保险,以一种类似于对冲的工具来补充其传统的保险范围. Vulnerable infrastructure such as highways, 接入点甚至森林本身的一部分都可以通过参数化策略得到保护,如果野火影响到它们,给公司造成直接或间接的经济损失,该策略可以迅速做出反应.
Parametric Innovation Brings More Capacity
长期和成熟的保险公司以及新的(再)保险公司和资本市场可以在参数基础上提供覆盖,扩大可用的总容量. 定价和风险偏好的差异主要是由资本提供者对特定地点野火频率的看法驱动的.
近年来, 我们已经看到了一些模型的出现,这些模型使用了经典方法所忽略的各种数据源和技术. 新型号的更新周期比我们在行业中通常看到的多年型号发布时间表要频繁得多. This allows for more accurate 和 dynamic pricing of parametric solutions.
使用这些新的建模能力的市场的差异化在于能够识别他们感知风险低于更广泛市场所暗示的领域. 它们的价值主张包括“分割”出大多数保险公司可能会放弃、但它们相信自己能够以可承受的保费承保的大量风险敞口或区域.
As communities 和 businesses advance in their efforts to protect themselves, 快速支付并有助于抵消任何损失来源的参数化保险将越来越多地为传统保险网上买足彩的正规app提供更多选择.
As parametric solutions do not require complex 和 costly loss adjustment operations, the barrier to entry is lower for newcomers to the space. 更低的成本, coupled with innovations in remote sensing 和 modeling, 会带来新的能力来补充现有的传统保险吗.
永无止境的烟季
近年来,企业和社区已经意识到,野火造成的直接财产损失威胁日益加剧. While the direct fire damage remains an issue of immediate concern, 然而,另一种危险正在逼近:野火烟雾造成的直接和间接损失增加.
美国.S. 从10月到5月,西海岸的空气中一直弥漫着烟雾,这是由于冬季居民使用柴炉造成的, burning of wood debris in the fall 和 spring, 和 other agricultural or prescribed fires. Industrial operations were the sole significant source of smoke that persisted throughout the year. 然而, 现在, 在越来越长的夏季,频繁的野火增加了第二个烟雾来源,使人们可以称之为永无止境的烟雾季节更加复杂, which extends from January to December.
The air we breathe contains particles such as dust, 花粉和霉菌, referred to as PM10 or particulate matter of 10 microns or less in diameter. The incomplete combustion of organic compounds that occurs during wildfires adds to the air tinier PM2.5粒2.直径小于等于5微米. 更小更轻, 这些粒子传播得更远, affecting a greater swath of the population. 从健康的角度来看,它们最令人担忧,因为它们的大小允许它们进入我们的呼吸道,深入肺部, w在这里 they can cause a range of medical conditions, from decreased lung function to cardiac arrhythmias or heart attacks.
在野火易发地区的葡萄酒种植者不得不应对葡萄园和设施被烧毁的可能性增加的问题,但也要与烟雾作斗争 affecting the quality of their grapes. 或许更深远的影响是,对于那些自然会让员工在户外工作更长时间的公司来说,这对员工补偿计划的潜在影响.
Just as we are seeing for direct wildfire risk, the need for capacity to cover smoke-related damages will increase. 参数化网上买足彩的正规app准备作为选项出现,在这个领域提供额外的覆盖选择, possibly using instrumental networks similar to those 已经存在的 in the citizen scientist community.
Parametric 网上买足彩的正规app 和 Community-Based 保险
While a changing climate continues to present insurance coverage challenges, Guy Carpenter is advancing the concept of “Community-Based Catastrophe 保险,这是一个公私合作的例子,旨在吸引保险公司为面临风险的社区提供负担得起的保护. A mechanism providing credits for no- or low-losses creates an incentive for mitigation adoption. 缓解措施, 反过来, can be well-accommodated by parametric solutions, 例如, by excluding buffer zones with low risk of wildfire, which further reduces the premium.
As communities 和 businesses advance in their efforts to protect themselves, 快速支付并有助于抵消任何损失来源的参数化保险将越来越多地为传统保险网上买足彩的正规app提供更多选择.